Goldman Flips to September Fed Hike Baseline as JPM and Citi Align
After hot-core August CPI, Goldman baseline is 25 bp at the Sep 15-16 FOMC; FedWatch hike odds near 85-90%.
US 2Y4.56%
US 10Y4.95%
US 30Y5.37%
2s10s+39bp
WTI$97.26
Brent$109.51
Fed funds3.50–3.75%
CPI3.7% YoY
Core CPI2.8% YoY
Unemployment4.10%
Economy
Hungary Skips Diesel Price Cap, Offers Targeted Aid to About 1 Million Cars
No pump cap (shortage risk); HUF 20,000 (~$64) by December for ≤150 hp diesels; HUF 5,000/month; first pay October.
Homeownership Is Becoming a Luxury the Middle Class Can No Longer Count On
Elevated rates, high absolute prices, and delayed first time buyers show ownership is selectively available, even as national affordability indexes...
BRICS New Delhi Declaration Urges Maximum Restraint in Middle East
Reuters and Hindustan Times: unanimous New Delhi Declaration 2026; paragraph 28 deep concern and maximum restraint.
China Caps Retail Gasoline and Diesel Hikes Effective Saturday Below Formula Levels
NDRC: gasoline +260 yuan/ton, diesel +250 vs formula 435/420; Reuters: third wartime limit; effective Sat Sep 12.
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Falls to 47.8 in Early September as Inflation Expectations Rise to 4.6%
UMich preliminary 47.8 vs 51.7 August; Reuters consensus 51.0; 1-year inflation expectations 4.6% from 4.0%; 5-year 3.4% from 3.3%; Hsu...
UPDATE: August CPI Rises 0.4% and 3.4% In Line; Core MoM 0.3% Hot vs 0.2%
BLS head +0.4% MoM / +3.4% YoY in line DJ/Reuters; core MoM +0.3% hot vs 0.2%; core YoY +2.4%; energy...
France Cuts 2026 Growth Forecast to 0.5% From 0.7% as Energy and Heatwaves Weigh
Lescure to 0.5% from 0.7%; inflation 2.1% 2026; Insee 0.4% separate; 2027 rebound 1%; heatwaves -0.1 pt; no new deficit...
Friday CPI Is the Gate for a Near 70% Fed Hike Bet After Hot PPI and $100 Oil
Aug. CPI Fri Sep. 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET into Sep. 15-16 FOMC; headline ~0.4% m/m; y/y DJ 3.4% vs...
ECB Raises Key Rates 25 bp; Deposit Facility Moves to 2.50%
Deposit 2.50%, MRO 2.65%, MLF 2.90% from Sep. 16; data-dependent and not pre-committing to a path.
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