Japan is expected to overtake China as the world’s largest importer of liquefied natural gas in 2026 as elevated prices and structural changes in Chinese energy demand reshape one of the world’s most important gas markets.
Consultancy ICIS forecasts Japanese LNG imports of approximately 62 million metric tons this year, compared with 61 million tons for China.
Kpler separately forecasts approximately 63 million tons for Japan and 62 million tons for China. Japan last imported more LNG than China in 2022.
China first became the world’s largest LNG importer in 2021, but demand subsequently declined and has remained below its previous peak.
The change extends beyond short-term market conditions. China has expanded renewable generation, domestic gas production and pipeline imports, reducing its reliance on imported LNG. Higher international gas prices and expectations for a relatively mild winter have further weakened demand.
China also entered the heating season with substantial inventories. Underground storage was approximately 80% to 90% full by the end of September, with some regions above historical levels.
High spot prices are suppressing additional purchases. ICIS estimates that elevated prices could currently be keeping as much as 15 million tons of annual Chinese spot-LNG demand out of the market.
Japan’s LNG consumption is also declining as nuclear reactors return to service, but its decline has been slower.
If China’s weakness proves structural rather than temporary, global LNG exporters could face greater competition for customers elsewhere in Asia and Europe just as substantial new export capacity enters the global market.
