Glencore has raised its 2026 outlook for its commodity-trading business, saying adjusted operating profit from marketing activities is now expected to exceed $5 billion after exceptionally strong performance in energy markets.
The Swiss commodities group said volatile oil, natural-gas and freight markets helped drive a near-record first-half performance and continued to support its trading operations during the second half of the year.
The revised forecast puts marketing earnings substantially above Glencore’s previous long-term guidance range and highlights how disruption across global energy markets is benefiting large commodity traders capable of moving supplies between regions.
Glencore’s marketing division trades commodities including crude oil, refined products, natural gas, metals and agricultural products. Unlike traditional mining operations, trading businesses can sometimes benefit from volatility because large regional price differences create opportunities to redirect commodities toward markets where shortages are most severe.
Those conditions have intensified as conflict in the Middle East has disrupted normal energy flows and increased transportation and freight costs.
Glencore is also changing the way investors should evaluate the trading division over longer periods.
The company reset its long-term guidance framework rather than treating this year’s elevated earnings as a new normal. That distinction is important because commodity-trading profits can fluctuate substantially as volatility, supply disruptions and regional price differences change.
For investors, the higher forecast provides another indication that the current energy shock is creating winners as well as losers.
Consumers, manufacturers and transportation companies generally face higher costs when energy markets become disrupted. Large commodity merchants, however, can benefit from their storage capacity, shipping networks, trading operations and ability to arbitrage differences between regional markets.
The development also provides a corporate counterpart to the broader pressure governments are attempting to address through emergency fuel-stock releases.
Markets should now watch whether energy volatility remains elevated into the fourth quarter, how quickly disrupted supply routes normalize and whether Glencore’s unusually strong trading performance continues into 2027.
