The Bank of Japan is set to raise its policy rate most likely by 25 basis points to 1.25% at the Sept. 17-18 meeting, four sources familiar with BOJ thinking told Reuters on Sept. 11, while offering few clues on a terminal rate.
Nikkei Asia reported the same day that the BOJ plans to raise the key rate to 1.25% from 1%, which would mark the shortest span between hikes in the current phase that began in March 2024. The BOJ English home page lists the next Monetary Policy Meeting for Sept. 17 and 18, 2026, with the complementary deposit facility at 1.0% since June 17, 2026.
A Reuters poll found 97% of economists expect a hike on Sept. 18. Sources cited a moderate recovery, inflation near 2%, and fuel-price pressure, with conditions seen remaining loose even at 1.25%.
Governor Ueda is expected to avoid committing to a specific future-hike timetable, Reuters said. This is expectation and plan reporting, not a decision. No rate change is official until the post-meeting statement.
Sources: Reuters Tokyo Sept 11 (four sources: set to hike most likely 25 bp to 1.25%; few terminal clues; oil/yen drivers); Nikkei Asia Sept 11 (plans hike to 1.25% from 1%; shortest gap since hiking phase began); Reuters poll Sept 9-10 (97% expect Sept 18 hike); boj.or.jp EN home (next MPM Sept 17-18, 2026; deposit facility 1.0% since June 17, 2026).
