August payrolls rose 162,000 as markets price a roughly 58-60% chance of a 25 bp hike at the Sep. 15-16 meeting.
Economy • Markets • Fed
The Federal Open Market Committee meets Sep. 15-16 with the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75%. A quarter-point hike would lift the range to 3.75%-4.00%. August CPI is due Fri Sep. 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
BLS showed August nonfarm payrolls up 162,000 and unemployment unchanged at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month and 3.1% year over year. The July FOMC held 9-3, with three members preferring a hike.
President Trump, Vice President Vance, Treasury Secretary Bessent, and counselor Navarro urged the Fed not to tighten, in some cases calling for cuts. Chair Kevin Warsh said the president has had no impact on his decisions. Aides cite three-month core CPI near 1.6% annualized; Fed-leaning views cite three-month core PCE just over 3%.
CME FedWatch implied roughly a 58-60% chance of a September hike across Sep. 7-9 snapshots. Refresh that live print at publish. Keep this separate from any Dow wrap.
Sources: Federal Reserve calendar; BLS; CNBC; CME FedWatch via Reuters.
Cedar Global Markets
