Europe is heading toward a substantial fourth-quarter jet fuel deficit as disrupted Middle Eastern supply forces buyers to source aviation fuel from increasingly distant markets.
Energy Aspects forecasts a European jet fuel deficit of approximately 510,000 barrels per day during the fourth quarter, while the United States and Asia-Pacific are expected to record surpluses.
The imbalance has transformed trade flows.
Europe has increased imports from suppliers including Nigeria, the United States, Canada and now South Korea after Middle East disruptions reduced flows that previously supplied a large share of Europe’s jet fuel imports.
South Korean shipments to Europe have reached about 129,000 barrels per day so far in September, the highest rate since October 2022.
Inventory levels are adding pressure.
Independent jet fuel stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining and storage hub fell to their lowest level in seven years during the week ending September 10.
The tightening market is creating stronger incentives for Asian refiners to send fuel west.
South Korean jet fuel production reached nearly 13.89 million barrels in July, a seven-year high, while refinery crude-processing rates increased sharply.
Jet fuel belongs to the middle-distillate complex alongside diesel and gas oil, meaning the shortage intersects with broader pressure already visible in European fuel markets.
For airlines, refiners and energy traders, the key question is whether long-distance imports can rebuild inventories before winter or merely prevent an already tight market from becoming more severe.
