Rising bond yields and soaring oil prices have many Wall Street professionals looking back to the volatile period before the late-1990s dot-com crash, Bloomberg reported Sunday, but that does not mean desks are telling clients to dump equities. The free lede by Geoffrey Morgan frames the institutional message as stay in the market even as valuation comparisons intensify into Federal Reserve week.
The same Bloomberg framing cites the U.S. 10-year near 5%, the long bond around its highest since 2007, growing bets on a Fed rate rise this week, West Texas Intermediate around $100 a barrel, and elevated energy tied to Middle East conflict, plus September’s seasonal softness for stocks.
Separately, the Shiller CAPE ratio stood at 41.09 as of 4:00 p.m. EDT Friday, Sept. 11, according to Multpl data courtesy of Robert Shiller. Multpl lists a historical maximum of 44.19 in December 1999. This note treats CAPE as valuation context, not a timing signal, and does not predict a crash.
Sources: Bloomberg Sept 13 (Geoffrey Morgan free lede: stay with stocks despite late-1990s / pre-dot-com vibe; 10-year near 5%; long bond highest since ~2007; WTI around $100; September seasonality); Multpl Shiller PE (41.09 as of 4:00 p.m. EDT Fri Sept 11; data courtesy Robert Shiller; historical max 44.19 Dec 1999); Motley Fool Sept 7 (secondary CAPE over 41 color only).
