Friday’s August consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. ET is the last major inflation print before the Federal Reserve’s Sep. 15-16 FOMC meeting. Economists surveyed by FactSet expect headline CPI up about 0.4% month over month, with the annual rate near 3.3%, Morningstar reported. Dow Jones consensus cited by CNBC puts the annual headline nearer 3.4%. The two annual consensus readings differ slightly. Core CPI is seen near 0.2% month over month and about 2.4% year over year.
Traders priced roughly 70% odds of a September hike and close to 60% odds of another increase in December, according to CME FedWatch as cited by CNBC. Bank of America’s Stephen Juneau said core PCE was tracking about 0.26% month over month, a path that could greenlight a hike if confirmed, CNBC reported.
Friday’s print is the calendar gate into the FOMC week after hotter producer prices already on the tape. Soft core versus firmer headline is the useful split after the energy impulse.
Sources: CNBC (Jeff Cox), Sep. 10, 2026; Morningstar/FactSet consensus; CNBC citing CME FedWatch and BofA Juneau.
