U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in October from September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday, more than the 0.3% economists had forecast. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.3%, above the 0.2% forecast. The headline gain slowed from 0.6% in September, while the core pace matched September’s 0.3%.
Shelter costs rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the monthly increase, the bureau said. Food prices rose 0.5%, and energy prices rose 0.7% after a 5.2% jump in September.
The report has no 12-month inflation rate for overall or core prices. The bureau said it did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in government funding, so it cannot publish 12-month changes for indexes missing that month.
The core reading met a test Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller set in a speech in London hours before the release. Waller said he was leaning toward supporting a quarter-point increase in the Fed’s policy rate in December. If October’s data showed core inflation “around 0.3 percent or even higher,” he said, “a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting.” He added: “Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk.”
The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28. Its next meeting is Dec. 8 and 9, and Tuesday’s report is the last consumer price index report before it; the next one is due Dec. 10.
Stock futures were lower after the release, which followed Waller’s remarks. Shortly after 9 a.m. Eastern time, S&P 500 futures were down about 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures about 1%, while Dow futures were down about 0.2%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.95%, and the two-year yield rose more than 15 basis points, CNBC reported.
