As many as 12,000 UBS jobs in Switzerland could be at risk under a worst-case scenario in which tougher capital requirements ultimately lead the bank to relocate, sell itself or merge with another institution, according to the Swiss Bank Employees Association.
The association, known as SBPV, outlined the estimate in a letter to Swiss lawmakers as parliament continues debating the regulatory framework imposed on UBS following its 2023 acquisition of Credit Suisse.
The potential losses would represent between 10,000 and 12,000 positions from UBS’s roughly 34,000-person Swiss workforce.
The estimate is a scenario from the employees association, not an announced UBS restructuring plan.
UBS has repeatedly said it wants to remain headquartered in Switzerland and declined to endorse the SBPV estimate.
The bank separately continues integrating Credit Suisse and expects approximately 3,000 Swiss job reductions over several years from that process.
The latest warning centers on proposed capital requirements for UBS’s foreign subsidiaries.
Switzerland’s upper house has proposed requiring UBS to back those operations with 90% Common Equity Tier 1 capital.
UBS considers that requirement excessive, and its chairman has previously warned that disproportionately restrictive regulation could force the bank to reconsider its future structure.
The dispute matters because UBS has become uniquely important to Switzerland’s financial system following the collapse and emergency takeover of Credit Suisse.
Regulators want significantly stronger loss-absorbing capacity after the 2023 crisis, while UBS argues that excessively high requirements could weaken its ability to compete internationally.
That creates an unusually difficult policy trade-off.
Stronger capital can reduce financial-stability risk, but requirements materially above those facing international competitors can change where a global bank chooses to deploy capital, staff and operations.
For investors, the final capital framework could influence UBS’s profitability, shareholder distributions and strategic structure.
For Switzerland, the stakes now increasingly include employment and the country’s role as a global banking center.
The next step is parliamentary consideration of the capital structure and whether lawmakers can produce a compromise acceptable to regulators, UBS and Switzerland’s political system.
