Traders cannot reconcile how much crude is moving through the Strait of Hormuz, and that gap itself is supporting a residual risk premium in oil prices. In a Sep. 9 Reuters Open Interest column, Ron Bousso argued the uncertainty could remain entrenched for months. Pre-war consensus traffic was often cited near 20 million barrels a day.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said more than 17 million barrels a day transited Hormuz on Aug. 31 under U.S. Navy supervision. Kpler put that same day’s crossing nearer 6 million barrels a day, with an August average near 4.3 million and about 5 million in early September. Wright also spoke of flows averaging above 9 million barrels a day without specifying the period. One possible reconciliation is that the administration figure may include Fujairah volumes outside the strait.
This is an analysis package on flow fog and premium, not a new military event lede and not an OPEC survey. Brent’s move above $100 the same day is timestamp glue only.
Sources: Reuters Open Interest (Ron Bousso), Sep. 9, 2026; oil tape cross-check via Reuters energy.
