A unanimous Reuters poll of 65 economists expects +25 bp in Berlin as August euro-area inflation flashed 3.3% on energy.
Economy • Europe • Central Banks
The ECB Governing Council meets in Berlin on Sep. 9-10, with the rate decision and press conference on Sep. 10. The deposit facility stands at 2.25%, the main refinancing rate at 2.40%, and the marginal lending facility at 2.65%, effective since June 17.
All 65 economists in a Reuters survey from Aug. 31 to Sep. 3 predicted a 25 bp deposit hike to 2.50%. About 91% see the year-end rate still at 2.50%. If delivered, Reuters frames it as the second and possibly final move of a short campaign after the June hike and July hold. The hike is not decided until the announcement.
Eurostat’s August HICP flash rose to 3.3% year over year from 2.9% in July, with energy at 14.3% and core at 2.4%. Interest-rate futures have priced a third move beyond September even as most economists expect a stop at 2.50%. This coverage is distinct from the Fed preview.
Sources: ECB calendar and key rates; Reuters poll Sep. 3; Eurostat flash Aug. 2026.
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