Markets price near-certain quarter-point action after July wages jumped 4.7% and Q2 GDP was revised to 1.4% annualized.
Economy • Japan • Central Banks
The Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting is set for Sep. 17-18, with a decision expected Sep. 18. The uncollateralized overnight call rate guideline remains around 1.0% after the June move, widely described as a roughly 31-year high. Markets and board lean suggest a 25 bp rise to 1.25% if approved; that is expectation, not a completed hike.
Tokyo Tanshi swap odds cited about 97-98% for a September move in Sep. 8 Reuters wires. July total cash earnings rose 4.7% year over year, the largest nominal jump since January 1997, with real wages up 2.4%, per MHLW data. Cabinet Office revised Q2 annualized real GDP to 1.4% from 1.1%.
USD/JPY firmed to 152.89 on Sep. 8 after about a 4.5% yen gain in a week. MoF spent a record ¥15.4 trillion on yen support from Jul. 30 to Aug. 26. Prefer BoJ, Reuters, Nikkei, MHLW, and Cabinet Office over aggregator blogs.
Sources: BoJ calendar; MHLW; Cabinet Office; Reuters; Bloomberg.
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